Compared to October, the price of electricity in Estonia decreased by 9.6% in November, remaining, on average, at 82.56 euros per megawatt-hour. Compared to November last year, electricity was 21.5% cheaper this year (105.2 euros per megawatt-hour in 2023). The decline in prices from last year was mainly due to above-average temperatures and increased renewable energy production in the area.

The highest electricity prices last month were observed between 2 pm and 6 pm, during which the average price was 54.3% above the monthly average at 127.4 euros per megawatt hour. Generally, consumption is high during those hours. The most favourable hourly rates occurred between 12 am and 4 am, with an average price of more than half (59.3%) lower than the monthly average, at 33.59 euros per megawatt hour.

Considering past years, we can anticipate that similar price trends will likely continue. In December 2023, electricity prices were nearly a third (28.9%) higher than the average monthly price between 2 pm and 6 pm, while they were over a third (37.5%) lower between 12 am and 4 am.

By days of the week, electricity prices are generally lowest on Saturdays and Sundays. On those days, prices were, on average, about 50% cheaper than the monthly average. On Saturdays, prices were 48% cheaper than the monthly average, and on Sundays, they were 51% cheaper. The most expensive days of the week were Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, when prices were over one-third (37.5%) higher than the average. On both Monday and Friday, the prices were similar to the average price for the month of November.

Compared to November last year, the dynamics of wind, solar, and oil shale energy have changed significantly. Wind power generation reached 171 gigawatt-hours in November, which is approximately three times more than in the same month of last year. Solar power generation reached 16.1 gigawatt-hours, which is attributed to the shorter days. While the overall quantity is small, it has nearly doubled compared to November 2023. Electricity production from oil shale decreased by over 50% in November compared to last year, totalling 118 gigawatt-hours.

Estonia's electricity demand was primarily met through imports, wind power, and oil shale electricity. In November 2024, 43.8% of Estonia's electricity consumption was covered by electricity imports (49.5% in 2023), 23.7% by wind energy (7.5% in 2023), 16.4% by oil shale electricity (26.3% in 2023), and 5.9% by biomass (8.8% in 2023). The proportion of remaining energy sources was minimal. In November, Estonia produced 404.4 gigawatt-hours of electricity, which covered just over half of its consumption.

In November, electricity prices in Latvia and Lithuania were similar to those in Estonia, at 88.75 euros per megawatt-hour and 88.66 euros per megawatt-hour, respectively.

The price difference was primarily influenced by maintenance activities on the electricity network between Estonia and Latvia, which temporarily restricted the transmission capacities between the two countries. As a result, less competitive electricity from Finland reached Latvia and Lithuania.

At the end of the month, the Finnish nuclear reactors Olkiluoto-3 and Loviisa-2, which were temporarily offline, raised electricity prices, significantly reducing the region's production capacity.

The average price of natural gas for the thermal power stations on the Dutch TTF exchange in November was 45.01 euros per megawatt-hour.

Last month, it was predicted that natural gas prices would stay in the range of 40 to 41 euros per megawatt hour in the upcoming months. However, current futures indicate that during the coming winter, the price of natural gas is expected to fluctuate between 48 and 49 euros per megawatt hour. The upcoming price increase is attributed to a low wind forecast, resulting in reduced wind energy production across Europe. Additionally, the price has risen due to unusually cold weather in Europe, which has increased the demand for gas-based electricity generation. Consequently, gas reserves that were previously above the five-year average have now fallen below normal seasonal levels.

The average price of CO₂ emission allowances in November was 67.51 euros per tonne. Futures trading suggests that the price will remain at 69 euros this year.

The increase in electricity prices at the start of winter is a common occurrence each year. This is due to increased energy consumption and reduced production of renewable energy, which is mainly at the expense of solar energy. In December, prices are expected to largely depend on the weather, as this will significantly impact both energy consumption and local production levels. Frosty and windless weather increases energy consumption and drives up prices. However, windy weather will significantly increase wind energy production, which will help lower the price of electricity.

Karl Joosep Randveer, Energy Trading Analyst at Eesti Energia

The market overview has been compiled by Eesti Energia according to the best current knowledge. The information provided is based on public information. The market overview is presented as informative material and not as a promise, proposal or official forecast by Eesti Energia. Due to rapid changes in the regulation of the electricity market, the market overview or the information contained in it is not final and may not correspond to future situations. Eesti Energia is not liable for any costs or damages that may arise in connection with the use of the information provided.