Compared to September, the price of electricity in Estonia’s Nord Pool price zone rose by 8.9% in October, reaching 91.37 EUR/MWh. On the morning of 2 October, the electricity price in Estonia fluctuated at 500 EUR/MWh for several hours. The price increase at the beginning of the month was due to colder weather and a sharp drop in the efficiency of wind turbines. Minimal wind energy production created a renewable energy deficit in the market, which in turn favoured the production of more expensive energy. Increased demand during the heating season and reduced wind output significantly raised prices, and the average weekly electricity price exceeded the 130 EUR/MWh limit.

In the second week of October, the market stabilised as wind energy production returned to normal levels, and local production was supplemented by oil shale power plants. As a result, weekly average electricity prices fell to around 60 EUR/MWh.

A total of 402 GWh of electricity was produced in Estonia in October, of which 136 GWh came from wind, 59 GWh from solar and 35 GWh from biomass. Domestic consumption amounted to 655 GWh. For comparison, in 2023, a total of 333 GWh of energy was produced in Estonia in October (+17%).

Average electricity prices remained similar in the Baltic States, at the level of 91.38 EUR/MWh. At the beginning of the month, prices rose to the level of 500 EUR/MWh in other Baltic countries as well. The rise in prices was influenced by increased demand and reduced local production. October also included maintenance on nuclear power plants in Finland and planned maintenance on thermal power plants in the Baltic states.

From 21 to 27 October, the Baltic states relied more on local production due to scheduled maintenance on the NordBalt connection (Sweden-Lithuania). This increased weekly average electricity prices in the Baltics to around 120 EUR/MWh. The Sweden-Lithuania 700 MW connection is one of the major price influencers in the Baltics.

At the Dutch TTF trading hub, the average price of natural gas was 40.48 EUR/MWh. Futures indicate that prices are likely to remain in the range of 40–41 EUR/MWh this winter. As of November, European gas storage facilities are 95% full.

The average price of CO₂ quotas in October was 64.47 EUR/t. According to futures contracts, this is expected to remain around 61 to 62 EUR/t this year.

Cooler temperatures and shorter days lead to an increase in electricity demand. Less daylight hours per day and frequent cloudiness reduce the efficiency of solar power plants. Increasing demand and decreasing supply, as a rule, lead to an increase in the market price of electricity. At the same time, windier weather arrives with the autumn period, which has a positive effect on the price of electricity due to the increasing production volumes of wind energy. In the near future, electricity prices will increasingly depend on wind and hydropower generation, energy imports from neighbouring countries and production costs of thermal power stations.

Karl Joosep Randveer, Energy Trading Analyst at Eesti Energia

The market overview has been compiled by Eesti Energia according to the best current knowledge. The information provided is based on public information. The market overview is presented as informative material and not as a promise, proposal or official forecast by Eesti Energia. Due to rapid changes in the regulation of the electricity market, the market overview or the information contained in it is not final and may not correspond to future situations. Eesti Energia is not liable for any costs or damages that may arise in connection with the use of the information provided.

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